Will an open-weights AI model rank #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index 'Overall' leaderboard before January 1, 2027?

Category: technology › models_architectures · #OpenSource #Benchmarks #OpenWeights

Status: open | Type: binary | Timeframe: long

Context

Open-weights means the model weights are publicly downloadable (e.g. Llama, Mistral, Qwen). The model must hold #1 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index overall ranking at any point before the deadline.

Predictions (194 total)

Yes: 167 | No: 27

Consensus: 86% Yes, 14% No

Resolution source: Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index overall leaderboard.

Resolution URL: https://artificialanalysis.ai/

Resolution date: 2027-01-01

Created: 2026-02-27

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