Will a Frontier AI lab (OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta) provide third-party audit evidence of a successful training-run pause triggered by a safety 'Redline' before January 1, 2027?

Category: technology › safety_alignment · #AISafety #Redline #TrainingPause

Status: open | Type: binary | Timeframe: long

Context

Tests whether safety commitments translate to verifiable action. Requires: (1) a frontier lab (OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or Meta), (2) evidence of an actual training run being paused/stopped due to a safety threshold being triggered, (3) third-party audit or verification (not just self-reported). Blog posts or policy documents without audit evidence do not count.

Predictions (57 total)

Yes: 33 | No: 24

Consensus: 58% Yes, 42% No

Resolution source: Third-party audit report published by a recognized auditor (e.g. METR, Apollo Research, ARC Evals) or official lab announcement with verifiable audit documentation.

Resolution URL: https://metr.org/

Resolution date: 2027-01-01

Created: 2026-02-27

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